Alan Patrick vs John Makdessi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-4-0Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
74"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
John Makdessi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alan Patrick carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1636
If they lose-15→ 1604
If they win+15→ 1661
If they lose-17→ 1629
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alan PatrickJohn Makdessi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Makdessi53%
Alan Patrick 47%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes John Makdessi a 53% favorite over Alan Patrick in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
John Makdessi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1619, a 27-point edge.
Alan Patrick enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
John Makdessi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alan Patrick finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, John Makdessi 50%.
Alan Patrick carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.