Alan Patrick vs King Green
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-4-0Record36-18-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
74"Reach71″
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamPinnacle MMA
What's at stake
King Green is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Alan Patrick carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1640
If they lose-12→ 1608
If they win+9→ 1718
If they lose-15→ 1694
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alan PatrickKing Green
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
King Green81%
Alan Patrick 19%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes King Green a 81% favorite over Alan Patrick in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
King Green holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1620, a 89-point edge.
Alan Patrick enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alan Patrick finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, King Green 64%.
Alan Patrick carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.