Combat Edge Intelligence

Alan Patrick vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-4-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
74"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alan PatrickNow 1619
If they win+16→ 1635
If they lose-16→ 1603
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.82
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
41%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
43%
Strike defense
59%
3.01
Takedown avg.
0.58
33%
Takedown accuracy
39%
44%
Takedown defense
81%
0.26
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Alan PatrickMichael Johnson
16001650202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
2 (13%)
Submission
2 (8%)
9 (60%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Johnson62%
Alan Patrick 38%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Johnson a 62% favorite over Alan Patrick in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alan Patrick's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1619 vs 1613), separated by just 6 points.

Alan Patrick enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alan Patrick finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.