Combat Edge Intelligence

Alan Patrick vs Scott Holtzman

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-4-0Record14-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
74"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamShield Systems

What's at stake

Scott Holtzman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Alan Patrick carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alan PatrickNow 1619
If they win+18→ 1637
If they lose-14→ 1605
Scott HoltzmanNow 1664
If they win+14→ 1678
If they lose-18→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.82
Sig. strikes / min
4.32
41%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.66
43%
Strike defense
55%
3.01
Takedown avg.
1.88
33%
Takedown accuracy
57%
44%
Takedown defense
67%
0.26
Submission avg.
0.18

Trajectory

Alan PatrickScott Holtzman
16001650170020212022

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
2 (13%)
Submission
2 (14%)
9 (60%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Scott Holtzman63%
Alan Patrick 37%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Scott Holtzman a 63% favorite over Alan Patrick in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Scott Holtzman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1619, a 45-point edge.

Alan Patrick enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Alan Patrick finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Scott Holtzman 50%.

Alan Patrick carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.