Alan Patrick vs Stevie Ray
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-4-0Record26-13-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
74"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamHigher Level MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1636
If they lose-15→ 1604
If they win+15→ 1646
If they lose-17→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alan PatrickStevie Ray
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stevie Ray62%
Alan Patrick 38%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Stevie Ray a 62% favorite over Alan Patrick in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1619 vs 1631), separated by just 12 points.
Alan Patrick enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Stevie Ray enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alan Patrick finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Stevie Ray 62%.
Alan Patrick and Stevie Ray share 1 common opponent: Michael Johnson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.