Combat Edge Intelligence

Albert Morales vs Louis Smolka

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Louis Smolka
us

Louis Smolka

“Da Last Samurai”

17-9-0BantamweightUFC

1630Solid

Tale of the tape

15-9-1Record17-9-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'9"
39,0"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Systems Training CenterTeamTeam Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Albert MoralesNow 1630
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
Louis SmolkaNow 1630
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.81
Sig. strikes / min
4.67
36%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.11
56%
Strike defense
54%
0.91
Takedown avg.
1.69
36%
Takedown accuracy
35%
71%
Takedown defense
32%
0.18
Submission avg.
1.78

Trajectory

Albert MoralesLouis Smolka
155016001650170020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
5 (33%)
Submission
7 (41%)
3 (20%)
Decision
2 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Louis Smolka55%
Albert Morales 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Louis Smolka a 55% favorite over Albert Morales in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Albert Morales's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1630), separated by just 0 points.

Albert Morales enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Albert Morales finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Louis Smolka 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.