Combat Edge Intelligence

Albert Tumenov vs Matt Dwyer

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-5-0Record11-9-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'4"
73,0"Reach44,0"
171 lbsWeight183 lbs
American Top TeamTeamToshido Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Albert Tumenov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Matt Dwyer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Albert TumenovNow 1754
If they win+6→ 1760
If they lose-18→ 1736
Matt DwyerNow 1563
If they win+24→ 1587
If they lose-8→ 1555

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.76
Sig. strikes / min
2.57
42%
Strike accuracy
34%
3.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.24
59%
Strike defense
55%
0.20
Takedown avg.
0.44
20%
Takedown accuracy
10%
75%
Takedown defense
60%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Albert TumenovMatt Dwyer
15501600165017001750202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (63%)
KO/TKO
9 (82%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
9 (38%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Albert Tumenov80%
Matt Dwyer 20%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Albert Tumenov a 80% favorite over Matt Dwyer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Albert Tumenov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1563, a 191-point edge.

Matt Dwyer enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Albert Tumenov finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Matt Dwyer 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.