Albert Tumenov vs Matt Dwyer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-5-0Record11-9-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'4"
73,0"Reach44,0"
171 lbsWeight183 lbs
American Top TeamTeamToshido Mixed Martial Arts
What's at stake
Albert Tumenov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Matt Dwyer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1772
If they lose-18→ 1748
If they win+24→ 1588
If they lose-8→ 1556
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1629 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Albert TumenovMatt Dwyer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Albert Tumenov79%
Matt Dwyer 21%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Albert Tumenov a 79% favorite over Matt Dwyer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Albert Tumenov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1564, a 202-point edge.
Matt Dwyer enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Albert Tumenov finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Matt Dwyer 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.