Aleksandar Rakić vs Jan Błachowicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record29-12-2
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'5"Height6'2"
78"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Gym 23· 1685 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamWCA Fight Team· 1652 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Jan Błachowicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Aleksandar Rakić carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1712
If they lose-14→ 1680
If they win+11→ 1744
If they lose-13→ 1720
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1740 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1759 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aleksandar RakićJan Błachowicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aleksandar Rakić60%
Jan Błachowicz 40%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Aleksandar Rakić a 60% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jan Błachowicz's way (44%).
Jan Błachowicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1733 to 1694, a 39-point edge.
Aleksandar Rakić finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Jan Błachowicz 62%.
Aleksandar Rakić and Jan Błachowicz share 1 common opponent: Magomed Ankalaev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.