Aleksandar Rakić vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'2"
78"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
Gym 23· 1617 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Aleksandar Rakić is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1712
If they lose-17→ 1680
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-11→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aleksandar RakićThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aleksandar Rakić59%
Thiago Santos 41%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Aleksandar Rakić a 59% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Aleksandar Rakić holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1674, a 23-point edge.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Aleksandar Rakić finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Aleksandar Rakić and Thiago Santos share 2 common opponents: Magomed Ankalaev and Jan Błachowicz.
Aleksandar Rakić carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.