Aleksandar Rakić vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-6-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'2"
78"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
Gym 23TeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Aleksandar Rakić carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1693
If they lose-15→ 1661
If they win+11→ 1705
If they lose-13→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aleksandar RakićThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aleksandar Rakić70%
Thiago Santos 30%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Aleksandar Rakić a 70% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thiago Santos's way (47%).
Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1676, a 18-point edge.
Aleksandar Rakić enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Aleksandar Rakić finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Aleksandar Rakić and Thiago Santos share 3 common opponents: Magomed Ankalaev, Jan Błachowicz and Jimi Manuwa.
Aleksandar Rakić carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.