Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksandr Chizov vs Evan Dunham

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record18-9-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
75"Reach70,0"
160 lbsWeight155 lbs
ProfesionalisTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Evan Dunham is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Aleksandr Chizov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aleksandr ChizovNow 1648
If they win+17→ 1665
If they lose-15→ 1633
Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+11→ 1681
If they lose-13→ 1657

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
5.33
TBD
Strike accuracy
39%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.54
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.82
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
80%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.98

Trajectory

Aleksandr ChizovEvan Dunham
16501700201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (62%)
KO/TKO
3 (17%)
3 (23%)
Submission
6 (33%)
2 (15%)
Decision
9 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Aleksandr Chizov67%
Evan Dunham 33%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Aleksandr Chizov a 67% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Evan Dunham's way (47%).

Evan Dunham holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1648, a 22-point edge.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Aleksandr Chizov finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Evan Dunham 50%.

Aleksandr Chizov carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.