Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksandr Grozin vs Edson Barboza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-7-2Record24-15-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'11"
-Reach75"
147 lbsWeight145 lbs
Raty Team· 1669 avg Elo · 13 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Aleksandr Grozin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aleksandr GrozinNow 1691
If they win+11→ 1702
If they lose-13→ 1678
Edson BarbozaNow 1669
If they win+13→ 1682
If they lose-11→ 1658

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.14
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.68
TBD
Strike defense
56%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.43
TBD
Takedown accuracy
32%
TBD
Takedown defense
73%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.08

Trajectory

Aleksandr GrozinEdson Barboza
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (24%)
KO/TKO
14 (58%)
3 (12%)
Submission
1 (4%)
16 (64%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Aleksandr Grozin60%
Edson Barboza 40%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Aleksandr Grozin a 60% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Aleksandr Grozin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1691 to 1669, a 22-point edge.

Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Aleksandr Grozin finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Edson Barboza 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.