Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksandre Topuria vs Takeya Mizugaki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-1-0Record23-14-2
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
68"Reach68,0"
139 lbsWeight135 lbs
Climent Club· 1711 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamHakkei Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aleksandre TopuriaNow 1612
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588
Takeya MizugakiNow 1612
If they win+12→ 1624
If they lose-12→ 1600

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.73
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
52%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
70%
Strike defense
58%
1
Takedown avg.
1.46
50%
Takedown accuracy
58%
100%
Takedown defense
70%
0
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Aleksandre TopuriaTakeya Mizugaki
155016001650201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
5 (22%)
2 (29%)
Submission
1 (4%)
2 (29%)
Decision
17 (74%)

Combat Edge model read

Aleksandre Topuria70%
Takeya Mizugaki 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Aleksandre Topuria a 70% favorite over Takeya Mizugaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1612), separated by just 0 points.

Aleksandre Topuria enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Aleksandre Topuria finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Takeya Mizugaki 26%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.