Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksei Kunchenko vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-5-0Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
37.00Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
New StreamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Thiago Alves is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Aleksei Kunchenko carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aleksei KunchenkoNow 1539
If they win+26→ 1565
If they lose-22→ 1517
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+11→ 1583
If they lose-13→ 1559

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1691 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
44%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
64%
Strike defense
63%
0.25
Takedown avg.
0.71
33%
Takedown accuracy
61%
81%
Takedown defense
63%
0
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Aleksei KunchenkoThiago Alves
15501600201820192020

Win method breakdown

13 (59%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
1 (5%)
Submission
1 (4%)
8 (36%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Aleksei Kunchenko56%
Thiago Alves 44%Elo baseline: 45%

The Combat Edge model makes Aleksei Kunchenko a 56% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thiago Alves's way (45%).

Thiago Alves holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1572 to 1539, a 33-point edge.

Aleksei Kunchenko enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aleksei Kunchenko finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.