Aleksei Oleinik vs Derrick Lewis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
61-18-1Record29-14-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
80"Reach79"
254 lbsWeight264 lbs
Oleynik TeamTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Aleksei Oleinik carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1736
If they lose-11→ 1712
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1646 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aleksei OleinikDerrick Lewis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis70%
Aleksei Oleinik 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 70% favorite over Aleksei Oleinik in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1723, a 21-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aleksei Oleinik finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Derrick Lewis 86%.
Aleksei Oleinik and Derrick Lewis share 2 common opponents: Serghei Spivac and Chris Daukaus.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.