Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Rosholt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

61-18-1Record20-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
80"Reach41,0"
254 lbsWeight240 lbs
Oleynik TeamTeamTeam Takedown

What's at stake

Aleksei Oleinik is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jared Rosholt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aleksei OleinikNow 1723
If they win+10→ 1733
If they lose-14→ 1709
Jared RosholtNow 1663
If they win+14→ 1677
If they lose-10→ 1653

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1646 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1569 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.29
Sig. strikes / min
2.08
49%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.52
44%
Strike defense
60%
1.82
Takedown avg.
1.83
47%
Takedown accuracy
42%
38%
Takedown defense
67%
1.95
Submission avg.
0.14

Trajectory

Aleksei OleinikJared Rosholt
1650170017502017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

8 (13%)
KO/TKO
7 (35%)
48 (79%)
Submission
1 (5%)
5 (8%)
Decision
12 (60%)

Combat Edge model read

Jared Rosholt54%
Aleksei Oleinik 46%Elo baseline: 41%

The Combat Edge model makes Jared Rosholt a 54% favorite over Aleksei Oleinik in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aleksei Oleinik's way (41%).

Aleksei Oleinik holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1663, a 60-point edge.

Aleksei Oleinik finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Jared Rosholt 40%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.