Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
61-18-1Record18-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
80"Reach80"
254 lbsWeight259 lbs
Oleynik TeamTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Aleksei Oleinik is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jared Vanderaa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1729
If they lose-17→ 1705
If they win+17→ 1592
If they lose-7→ 1568
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aleksei OleinikJared Vanderaa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aleksei Oleinik72%
Jared Vanderaa 28%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Aleksei Oleinik a 72% favorite over Jared Vanderaa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Aleksei Oleinik holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1722 to 1575, a 147-point edge.
Jared Vanderaa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aleksei Oleinik finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Jared Vanderaa 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.