Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

61-18-1Record17-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
80"Reach80"
254 lbsWeight259 lbs
Oleynik TeamTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

Aleksei Oleinik is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jared Vanderaa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aleksei OleinikNow 1722
If they win+7→ 1729
If they lose-17→ 1705
Jared VanderaaNow 1585
If they win+17→ 1602
If they lose-7→ 1578

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.29
Sig. strikes / min
4.96
49%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.67
44%
Strike defense
45%
1.82
Takedown avg.
0.18
47%
Takedown accuracy
50%
38%
Takedown defense
20%
1.95
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aleksei OleinikJared Vanderaa
16001700202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (13%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
48 (79%)
Submission
6 (35%)
5 (8%)
Decision
3 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Aleksei Oleinik64%
Jared Vanderaa 36%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Aleksei Oleinik a 64% favorite over Jared Vanderaa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Aleksei Oleinik holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1722 to 1585, a 137-point edge.

Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Aleksei Oleinik finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Jared Vanderaa 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.