Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksei Oleinik vs Shamil Gaziev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

61-18-1Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
80"Reach78"
254 lbsWeight261 lbs
Oleynik TeamTeamKHK MMA Team· 1684 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aleksei OleinikNow 1722
If they win+12→ 1734
If they lose-12→ 1710
Shamil GazievNow 1730
If they win+16→ 1746
If they lose-16→ 1714

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.29
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
49%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.92
44%
Strike defense
45%
1.82
Takedown avg.
1.06
47%
Takedown accuracy
0%
38%
Takedown defense
83%
1.95
Submission avg.
0.26

Trajectory

Aleksei OleinikShamil Gaziev
1700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (13%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
48 (79%)
Submission
3 (20%)
5 (8%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Shamil Gaziev73%
Aleksei Oleinik 27%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Shamil Gaziev a 73% favorite over Aleksei Oleinik in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1722 vs 1730), separated by just 8 points.

Aleksei Oleinik finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Shamil Gaziev 87%.

Aleksei Oleinik carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.