Alessandro Costa vs Brandon Royval
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record18-9-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamFactory X
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689
If they win+12→ 1723
If they lose-12→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro CostaBrandon Royval
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alessandro Costa53%
Brandon Royval 47%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Alessandro Costa a 53% favorite over Brandon Royval in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brandon Royval's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1705 vs 1711), separated by just 6 points.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Brandon Royval 78%.
Alessandro Costa and Brandon Royval share 1 common opponent: Matt Schnell.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.