Combat Edge Intelligence

Alessandro Costa vs Edgar Cháirez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record14-6-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach71"
125 lbsWeight131 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamEntram Gym

What's at stake

Alessandro Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Edgar Cháirez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alessandro CostaNow 1689
If they win+14→ 1703
If they lose-18→ 1671
Edgar CháirezNow 1652
If they win+18→ 1670
If they lose-14→ 1638

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.86
Sig. strikes / min
3.65
47%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.75
57%
Strike defense
46%
0.77
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
0%
86%
Takedown defense
39%
0.38
Submission avg.
1.31

Trajectory

Alessandro CostaEdgar Cháirez
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (44%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
6 (38%)
Submission
9 (64%)
3 (19%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alessandro Costa and Edgar Cháirez within a point of even.

Alessandro Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1652, a 37-point edge.

Alessandro Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Edgar Cháirez enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Alessandro Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Edgar Cháirez 93%.

Edgar Cháirez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.