Alessandro Costa vs John Moraga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record19-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'6"
67"Reach66,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamArizona Combat Sports
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689
If they win+12→ 1712
If they lose-12→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1619 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro CostaJohn Moraga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alessandro Costa84%
John Moraga 16%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Alessandro Costa a 84% favorite over John Moraga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1705 vs 1700), separated by just 5 points.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, John Moraga 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.