Alessandro Costa vs Joseph Morales
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record14-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'6"
67"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1722 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689
If they win+16→ 1718
If they lose-16→ 1686
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro CostaJoseph Morales
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alessandro Costa53%
Joseph Morales 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alessandro Costa a 53% favorite over Joseph Morales in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1705 vs 1702), separated by just 3 points.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Joseph Morales 71%.
Alessandro Costa and Joseph Morales share 1 common opponent: Matt Schnell.
Joseph Morales carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.