Alessandro Costa vs Steve Erceg
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record14-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'8"
67"Reach 68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamWilkes Martial Arts
What's at stake
Steve Erceg is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alessandro Costa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1706
If they lose-15→ 1674
If they win+15→ 1720
If they lose-17→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro CostaSteve Erceg
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alessandro Costa and Steve Erceg within a point of even.
Steve Erceg holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1689, a 16-point edge.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Steve Erceg enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.
Alessandro Costa and Steve Erceg share 1 common opponent: Matt Schnell.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.