Alessio Sakara vs Chris Leben
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-13-0Record22-12-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
Chris Leben is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Alessio Sakara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1563
If they lose-9→ 1539
If they win+9→ 1644
If they lose-15→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1630 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessio SakaraChris Leben
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Leben61%
Alessio Sakara 39%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Leben a 61% favorite over Alessio Sakara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Chris Leben holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1548, a 87-point edge.
Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alessio Sakara finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Chris Leben 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.