Alessio Sakara vs Chris Weidman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-13-0Record16-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReach78"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Chris Weidman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Alessio Sakara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1564
If they lose-7→ 1540
If they win+9→ 1714
If they lose-23→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1734 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alessio SakaraChris Weidman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Weidman89%
Alessio Sakara 11%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Weidman a 89% favorite over Alessio Sakara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Chris Weidman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1547, a 158-point edge.
Alessio Sakara finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Chris Weidman 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.