Alessio Sakara vs Dean Lister
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-13-0Record13-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamVictory MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1560
If they lose-12→ 1536
If they win+16→ 1574
If they lose-16→ 1542
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessio SakaraDean Lister
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dean Lister57%
Alessio Sakara 43%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Dean Lister a 57% favorite over Alessio Sakara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1558), separated by just 10 points.
Dean Lister enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Alessio Sakara finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Dean Lister 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.