Combat Edge Intelligence

Alessio Sakara vs Houston Alexander

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Alessio Sakara
it

Alessio Sakara

“Legionarius”

21-13-0Light HeavyweightBFC

1548Average

Tale of the tape

21-13-0Record17-16-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight203 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGrudge Training Center

What's at stake

Alessio Sakara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Houston Alexander carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alessio SakaraNow 1548
If they win+9→ 1557
If they lose-15→ 1533
Houston AlexanderNow 1452
If they win+15→ 1467
If they lose-9→ 1443

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.96
Sig. strikes / min
3.64
48%
Strike accuracy
56%
2.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.38
59%
Strike defense
53%
2.18
Takedown avg.
0.59
79%
Takedown accuracy
100%
63%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alessio SakaraHouston Alexander
1450150015502016201720182019

Win method breakdown

15 (71%)
KO/TKO
14 (82%)
2 (10%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (19%)
Decision
3 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Alessio Sakara78%
Houston Alexander 22%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Alessio Sakara a 78% favorite over Houston Alexander in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Alessio Sakara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1548 to 1452, a 96-point edge.

Houston Alexander enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Alessio Sakara finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Houston Alexander 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.