Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Apodaca vs Alexis Dufresne

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-1-0Record6-3-0
BantamweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
136 lbsWeight150 lbs
Tiger Beetle Martial ArtsTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex ApodacaNow 1578
If they win+23→ 1601
If they lose-25→ 1553
Alexis DufresneNow 1567
If they win+25→ 1592
If they lose-23→ 1544

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1520 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.33
TBD
Strike accuracy
28%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.50
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alex ApodacaAlexis Dufresne
150015501600201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
3 (50%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (50%)
4 (100%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex Apodaca82%
Alexis Dufresne 18%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex Apodaca a 82% favorite over Alexis Dufresne in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1578 vs 1567), separated by just 11 points.

Alex Apodaca enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Alex Apodaca finishes 0% of wins inside the distance, Alexis Dufresne 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.