Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Apodaca vs Ronald Carillo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

3-1-0Record4-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"HeightTBD
71.5"ReachTBD
136 lbsWeight132 lbs
Tiger Beetle Martial ArtsTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex ApodacaNow 1551
If they win+24→ 1575
If they lose-24→ 1527
Ronald CarilloNow 1551
If they win+24→ 1575
If they lose-24→ 1527

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Alex ApodacaRonald Carillo
150015502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
1 (25%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (75%)
3 (100%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex Apodaca60%
Ronald Carillo 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex Apodaca a 60% favorite over Ronald Carillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1551 vs 1551), separated by just 0 points.

Alex Apodaca enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Alex Apodaca finishes 0% of wins inside the distance, Ronald Carillo 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.