Alex Caceres vs Francisco Rivera
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-15-0Record16-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
73,5"Reach68,0"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
MMA LabTeamAll In MMA
What's at stake
Alex Caceres is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Francisco Rivera carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1662
If they lose-13→ 1638
If they win+13→ 1624
If they lose-11→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex CaceresFrancisco Rivera
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Caceres55%
Francisco Rivera 45%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Caceres a 55% favorite over Francisco Rivera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Alex Caceres holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1611, a 40-point edge.
Alex Caceres enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Caceres finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Rivera 63%.
Alex Caceres carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.