Alex Caceres vs Lucas Almeida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-15-0Record15-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height6'0"
73,5"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
MMA LabTeamTeam Kioshi
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1663
If they lose-12→ 1639
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex CaceresLucas Almeida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Almeida62%
Alex Caceres 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Almeida a 62% favorite over Alex Caceres in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Caceres's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1651 vs 1651), separated by just 0 points.
Alex Caceres enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lucas Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Caceres finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Almeida 93%.
Alex Caceres carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.