Alex Caceres vs Mackens Semerzier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-15-0Record8-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
73,5"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
MMA LabTeamTeam Curran
What's at stake
Alex Caceres is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Mackens Semerzier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1661
If they lose-14→ 1637
If they win+19→ 1597
If they lose-13→ 1565
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex CaceresMackens Semerzier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Caceres67%
Mackens Semerzier 33%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Caceres a 67% favorite over Mackens Semerzier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Alex Caceres holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1578, a 73-point edge.
Alex Caceres enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mackens Semerzier enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alex Caceres finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Mackens Semerzier 100%.
Alex Caceres and Mackens Semerzier share 1 common opponent: Daniel Pineda.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.