Alex Caceres vs Masanori Kanehara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-15-0Record29-13-5
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
73,5"Reach40.00
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
MMA LabTeamReversal Gym Tachikawa Alpha
What's at stake
Alex Caceres is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Masanori Kanehara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1661
If they lose-14→ 1637
If they win+18→ 1618
If they lose-14→ 1586
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex CaceresMasanori Kanehara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Caceres59%
Masanori Kanehara 41%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Caceres a 59% favorite over Masanori Kanehara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Alex Caceres holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1600, a 51-point edge.
Alex Caceres enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Masanori Kanehara enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Caceres finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Masanori Kanehara 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.