Alex Caceres vs Motonobu Tezuka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-15-0Record30-15-6
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
73,5"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
MMA LabTeamSecret Base Dominate
What's at stake
Alex Caceres is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Motonobu Tezuka carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1661
If they lose-14→ 1637
If they win+14→ 1616
If they lose-10→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex CaceresMotonobu Tezuka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Caceres66%
Motonobu Tezuka 34%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Caceres a 66% favorite over Motonobu Tezuka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Alex Caceres holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1602, a 49-point edge.
Alex Caceres enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Motonobu Tezuka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Caceres finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Motonobu Tezuka 47%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.