Alex Caceres vs Wang Guan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-15-0Record22-1-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
73,5"Reach42.00
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
MMA LabTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Alex Caceres is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Wang Guan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1659
If they lose-16→ 1635
If they win+32→ 1562
If they lose-16→ 1514
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex CaceresWang Guan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Caceres58%
Wang Guan 42%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Caceres a 58% favorite over Wang Guan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Alex Caceres holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1530, a 121-point edge.
Alex Caceres enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Caceres finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Wang Guan 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.