Alex Caceres vs Yair Rodriguez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-15-0Record20-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
73,5"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
MMA LabTeamValle Flow Striking· 1672 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Yair Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Alex Caceres carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1666
If they lose-9→ 1642
If they win+12→ 1763
If they lose-20→ 1731
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex CaceresYair Rodriguez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yair Rodriguez78%
Alex Caceres 22%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Yair Rodriguez a 78% favorite over Alex Caceres in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Yair Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1751 to 1651, a 100-point edge.
Alex Caceres enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Caceres finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Yair Rodriguez 65%.
Alex Caceres carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.