Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex da Silva vs Rodrigo Vargas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-5-0Record16-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'7"
73"Reach71"
159 lbsWeight160 lbs
Astra Fight Team· 1601 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamMexican Pride Gym

What's at stake

Alex da Silva is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Rodrigo Vargas carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex da SilvaNow 1668
If they win+14→ 1682
If they lose-18→ 1650
Rodrigo VargasNow 1622
If they win+18→ 1640
If they lose-14→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1589 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.14
Sig. strikes / min
3.65
46%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.77
57%
Strike defense
58%
1.97
Takedown avg.
0.40
44%
Takedown accuracy
25%
77%
Takedown defense
30%
0.28
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Alex da SilvaRodrigo Vargas
1550160016501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
8 (33%)
Submission
7 (44%)
2 (8%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex da Silva72%
Rodrigo Vargas 28%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex da Silva a 72% favorite over Rodrigo Vargas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Alex da Silva holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1668 to 1622, a 46-point edge.

Rodrigo Vargas enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Alex da Silva finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Vargas 88%.

Alex da Silva carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.