Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex da Silva vs Trey Ogden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Trey Ogden
us

Trey Ogden

“Shamurai”

18-7-0LightweightUFC

1666Good

Tale of the tape

24-5-0Record18-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
73"Reach72"
159 lbsWeight155 lbs
Astra Fight Team· 1594 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamMarathon MMA· 1669 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex da SilvaNow 1667
If they win+16→ 1683
If they lose-16→ 1651
Trey OgdenNow 1666
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1589 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.14
Sig. strikes / min
3.20
46%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.49
57%
Strike defense
56%
1.97
Takedown avg.
1.89
44%
Takedown accuracy
33%
77%
Takedown defense
100%
0.28
Submission avg.
0.73

Trajectory

Alex da SilvaTrey Ogden
16501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
8 (33%)
Submission
11 (61%)
2 (8%)
Decision
7 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex da Silva60%
Trey Ogden 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex da Silva a 60% favorite over Trey Ogden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1667 vs 1666), separated by just 1 points.

Alex da Silva finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Trey Ogden 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.