Alex Garcia vs Mike Swick
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record15-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
72,0"ReachTBD
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamAKA Thailand
What's at stake
Mike Swick is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Alex Garcia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1633
If they lose-12→ 1601
If they win+12→ 1710
If they lose-20→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex GarciaMike Swick
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mike Swick64%
Alex Garcia 36%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Mike Swick a 64% favorite over Alex Garcia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Mike Swick holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1613, a 85-point edge.
Alex Garcia enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Mike Swick enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Garcia finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Mike Swick 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.