Alex Garcia vs Sean Spencer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record12-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72,0"Reach75,0"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Alex Garcia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Sean Spencer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1635
If they lose-18→ 1603
If they win+18→ 1599
If they lose-14→ 1567
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1678 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex GarciaSean Spencer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Garcia64%
Sean Spencer 36%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Garcia a 64% favorite over Sean Spencer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Alex Garcia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1621 to 1581, a 40-point edge.
Alex Garcia enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Sean Spencer enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Garcia finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Sean Spencer 33%.
Alex Garcia and Sean Spencer share 1 common opponent: Mike Pyle.
Sean Spencer carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.