Alex Garcia vs Sean Strickland
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record31-7-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
72,0"Reach76"
171 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tristar GymTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Sean Strickland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Alex Garcia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1645
If they lose-8→ 1613
If they win+6→ 1829
If they lose-18→ 1805
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1678 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1741 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex GarciaSean Strickland
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sean Strickland88%
Alex Garcia 12%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Sean Strickland a 88% favorite over Alex Garcia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Sean Strickland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1621, a 202-point edge.
Alex Garcia enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Sean Strickland enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alex Garcia finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Sean Strickland 52%.
Sean Strickland carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.