Alex Garcia vs Tim Means
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record33-17-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'2"
72,0"Reach75"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamFit NHB
What's at stake
Tim Means is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alex Garcia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1631
If they lose-14→ 1599
If they win+11→ 1657
If they lose-13→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex GarciaTim Means
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Garcia56%
Tim Means 44%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Garcia a 56% favorite over Tim Means in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tim Means's way (45%).
Tim Means holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1613, a 33-point edge.
Alex Garcia enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tim Means enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Garcia finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Tim Means 76%.
Alex Garcia and Tim Means share 1 common opponent: Court McGee.
Tim Means carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.