Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Gorgees vs Damir Ismagulov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-1-0Record26-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'10"
TBDReach74"
154 lbsWeight155 lbs
Australian Top TeamTeamBoets MMA

What's at stake

Damir Ismagulov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Alex Gorgees carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex GorgeesNow 1623
If they win+34→ 1657
If they lose-14→ 1609
Damir IsmagulovNow 1769
If they win+7→ 1776
If they lose-17→ 1752

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1510 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1628 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.67
Sig. strikes / min
3.36
32%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
38%
Strike defense
61%
0
Takedown avg.
1
TBD
Takedown accuracy
28%
55%
Takedown defense
70%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alex GorgeesDamir Ismagulov
16001700180020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
13 (50%)
2 (33%)
Submission
1 (4%)
1 (17%)
Decision
12 (46%)

Combat Edge model read

Damir Ismagulov72%
Alex Gorgees 28%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Damir Ismagulov a 72% favorite over Alex Gorgees in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Damir Ismagulov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1769 to 1623, a 146-point edge.

Damir Ismagulov enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alex Gorgees finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Damir Ismagulov 54%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.