Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Karalexis vs Jason Von Flue

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record14-12-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team SityodtongTeamTeam Live Wire

What's at stake

Alex Karalexis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Jason Von Flue carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex KaralexisNow 1506
If they win+23→ 1529
If they lose-25→ 1481
Jason Von FlueNow 1485
If they win+13→ 1498
If they lose-11→ 1474

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
1.59
42%
Strike accuracy
35%
2.39
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.55
54%
Strike defense
53%
2.70
Takedown avg.
1.06
45%
Takedown accuracy
18%
87%
Takedown defense
59%
0.90
Submission avg.
1.59

Trajectory

Alex KaralexisJason Von Flue
150015502007200820092010

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (7%)
1 (10%)
Submission
13 (93%)
4 (40%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex Karalexis61%
Jason Von Flue 39%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex Karalexis a 61% favorite over Jason Von Flue in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Alex Karalexis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1506 to 1485, a 21-point edge.

Alex Karalexis finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Jason Von Flue 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.