Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Morgan vs Nauris Bartoska

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Alex Morgan
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Alex Morgan

“The Chess Master”

18-7-0FeatherweightSMMA

1644Solid

Tale of the tape

18-7-0Record6-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71"Reach-
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
Tristar GymTeamSBG Drogheda

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex MorganNow 1644
If they win+12→ 1656
If they lose-12→ 1632
Nauris BartoskaNow 1644
If they win+24→ 1668
If they lose-24→ 1620

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Alex MorganNauris Bartoska
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (56%)
KO/TKO
3 (50%)
1 (6%)
Submission
2 (33%)
7 (39%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Nauris Bartoska76%
Alex Morgan 24%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nauris Bartoska a 76% favorite over Alex Morgan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Morgan's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1644 vs 1644), separated by just 0 points.

Alex Morgan enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Nauris Bartoska enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Alex Morgan finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Nauris Bartoska 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.