Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Nicholson vs Chad Hanekom

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-11-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'2"
81,0"Reach75"
224 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamFightFit Militia

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex NicholsonNow 1630
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
Chad HanekomNow 1631
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1615

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.12
Sig. strikes / min
0.73
44%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.47
47%
Strike defense
33%
0
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
50%
Takedown defense
71%
0.53
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Alex NicholsonChad Hanekom
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

17 (89%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
2 (11%)
Submission
5 (45%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alex Nicholson and Chad Hanekom within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1631), separated by just 1 points.

Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Chad Hanekom 82%.

Alex Nicholson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.