Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Nicholson vs Chase Waldon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

19-11-0Record11-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'1"
81,0"Reach41,0"
224 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamSpartan Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex NicholsonNow 1630
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
Chase WaldonNow 1631
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1615

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.12
Sig. strikes / min
1.03
44%
Strike accuracy
29%
4.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.72
47%
Strike defense
38%
0
Takedown avg.
7.76
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
50%
Takedown defense
0%
0.53
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alex NicholsonChase Waldon
16001650201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

17 (89%)
KO/TKO
3 (27%)
2 (11%)
Submission
5 (45%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Chase Waldon52%
Alex Nicholson 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Chase Waldon a 52% favorite over Alex Nicholson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1631), separated by just 1 points.

Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Chase Waldon 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.