Alex Nicholson vs Gustavo Sousa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-11-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'2"
81,0"Reach-
224 lbsWeight186 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamTeam Lucas Mineiro· 1654 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
If they win+16→ 1645
If they lose-16→ 1613
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alex NicholsonGustavo Sousa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Nicholson53%
Gustavo Sousa 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Nicholson a 53% favorite over Gustavo Sousa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1629), separated by just 1 points.
Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Gustavo Sousa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Gustavo Sousa 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.