Alex Nicholson vs Jack Hermansson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
19-11-0Record24-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'1"
81,0"Reach77"
224 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamFrontline Academy
What's at stake
Jack Hermansson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Alex Nicholson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1645
If they lose-9→ 1621
If they win+9→ 1730
If they lose-15→ 1706
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex NicholsonJack Hermansson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jack Hermansson72%
Alex Nicholson 28%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Jack Hermansson a 72% favorite over Alex Nicholson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Jack Hermansson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1721 to 1630, a 91-point edge.
Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jack Hermansson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jack Hermansson 71%.
Alex Nicholson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.