Alex Nicholson vs Jake Woodley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-11-0Record8-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'0"
81,0"Reach-
224 lbsWeight186 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamTeam Bodyshop· 1649 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
If they win+24→ 1656
If they lose-24→ 1608
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1481 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex NicholsonJake Woodley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Woodley63%
Alex Nicholson 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Woodley a 63% favorite over Alex Nicholson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1632), separated by just 2 points.
Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jake Woodley enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jake Woodley 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.