Alex Nicholson vs Misha Cirkunov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-11-0Record15-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
81,0"Reach77"
224 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Misha Cirkunov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Alex Nicholson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1643
If they lose-11→ 1619
If they win+14→ 1684
If they lose-18→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alex NicholsonMisha Cirkunov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Misha Cirkunov62%
Alex Nicholson 38%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Misha Cirkunov a 62% favorite over Alex Nicholson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Misha Cirkunov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1630, a 40-point edge.
Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Misha Cirkunov enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Misha Cirkunov 87%.
Alex Nicholson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.